# Arlington Value Capital: Analysis of 2020-Q1 13F Filings and Key Takeaways for Individual Investors

LeadHold is dedicated to assessing the reference value of investment institutions for retail investors. By continuously tracking the core holdings of Arlington Value Capital, LeadHold simulates buying its top five reported holdings on the first trading day after each 13F filing is released, then evaluates annualized return, Annualized Excess Return, Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and other performance metrics to assign a composite score and ranking. This analysis is intended to assess its relevance for individual investors and does not constitute investment advice.

## key performance metrics
* **Annualized Return: +2.83%**
* **Annualized Excess Return: -9.48%**
* **Sharpe ratio: 0.22**
* **Tracking Period: 6y 10m 22d**
* **Total Return Since Tracking: +21.18%**

## Risk Management
* **Maximum Drawdown: +57.30%**
* **Max Drawdown Recovery Time: Not recovered yet**


## Overall Assessment
Based on key performance metrics, including annualized return of +2.83%, Annualized Excess Return of -9.48%, tracking period of 6y 10m 22d, Sharpe ratio of 0.22, and maximum drawdown of 57.30%, LeadHold classifies Arlington Value Capital as **Limited reference value**. However, because its tracking period is less than five years, it is not included in the LeadHold rankings. This information is provided for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

### Signal
1. Reduced ***Interactive Brokers Group, Inc*** holdings for 4 consecutive quarters. 
2. Reduced ***MONRO INC*** holdings for 4 consecutive quarters. 
3. Reduced ***AUTONATION INC*** holdings for 4 consecutive quarters. 
4. Reduced ***SPECTRUM BRANDS HLDGS INC NE*** holdings for 2 consecutive quarters. 
5. Reduced ***Berkshire Hathaway-B*** holdings for 2 consecutive quarters. 


## Top Five Core Long Positions
LeadHold assesses an institution’s relevance for retail investors by simulating a proportional purchase of its top five reported holdings.

1. BRK/B 48.87% 

2. CMPR 15.83% 

3. AN 12.03% 

4. SPB 11.82% 

5. MNRO 11.46% 


## Latest Top 10 Holdings
For the top 10 holdings, LeadHold uses publicly available data and actual trading volumes, together with an algorithm based on a diluted cost-basis methodology, to estimate the cost basis of selected positions. This estimate is provided for reference only and does not represent the investment institution’s actual cost basis.

|   No   |   Stock Name   |   Ticker   |  Activity   |    Estimated Cost  | Weight | Market Value | Shares |
| -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |  -------- | 
|   1   |   Berkshire Hathaway-B   |   BRK/B   |  Reduced -26.4%   |      |   +38.26% |    263.23M  |    1.44M  |
|   2   |   CIMPRESS PLC   |   CMPR   |  Reduced -19.69%   |      |   +12.39% |    85.26M  |    1.6M  |
|   3   |   AUTONATION INC   |   AN   |  Reduced -14.08%   |      |   +9.42% |    64.83M  |    2.31M  |
|   4   |   SPECTRUM BRANDS HLDGS INC NE   |   SPB   |  Reduced -35.66%   |      |   +9.25% |    63.64M  |    1.75M  |
|   5   |   MONRO INC   |   MNRO   |  Reduced -7.81%   |      |   +8.97% |    61.7M  |    1.41M  |
|   6   |   Interactive Brokers Group, Inc   |   IBKR   |  Reduced -14.96%   |      |   +6.27% |    43.14M  |    999.19K  |
|   7   |   JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP IN   |   JEF   |  Reduced -23.42%   |      |   +6.07% |    41.78M  |    3.06M  |
|   8   |   Bread Financial   |   BFH   |  Reduced -43.47%   |      |   +3.45% |    23.74M  |    705.6K  |
|   9   |   Wayfair   |   W   |  New   |      |   +1.8% |    12.39M  |    231.79K  |
|   10   |   Berkshire Hathaway Cl A   |   BRK/B   |  Held   |      |   +1.7% |    11.7M  |    43  |


## Q: Why track only the top five holdings?

**A:** The top five holdings usually represent an institution’s core allocation intent, reducing tracking complexity while improving strategy clarity and replicability.

- Focus on core allocation intent
- Reduce tracking decision load
- Improve strategy replicability


## Q: How do we validate an institution's reference value?

**A:** Using SEC-filed holdings reports, we screen institutions with independently verifiable and easier-to-replicate long-term public records, then rank them.

- More than five years of disclosed holdings
- Track the top five long positions
- Measure annualized return and consistency