# Thiel Macro: Analysis of 2026-Q2 13F Filings and Key Takeaways for Individual Investors

LeadHold is dedicated to assessing the reference value of investment institutions for retail investors. By continuously tracking the core holdings of Thiel Macro, LeadHold simulates buying its top five reported holdings on the first trading day after each 13F filing is released, then evaluates annualized return, alpha, Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and other performance metrics to assign a composite score and ranking. This analysis is intended to assess its relevance for individual investors and does not constitute investment advice.

## key performance metrics
* **Annualized Return: +1.57%**
* **Alpha: -11.69%**
* **Sharpe ratio: 0.06**
* **Tracking Period: 11y 1m 4d**
* **Total Return Since Tracking: +18.83%**

## Risk Management
* **Maximum Drawdown: +35.60%**
* **Max Drawdown Recovery Time: 3m 4d**


## Overall Assessment
Based on key performance metrics, including annualized return of +1.57%, alpha of -11.69%, tracking period of 11y 1m 4d, Sharpe ratio of 0.06, and maximum drawdown of 35.60%, LeadHold classifies Thiel Macro as **Limited reference value**. However, because its tracking period is less than five years, it is not included in the LeadHold rankings. This information is provided for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.


## Top Five Core Long Positions
LeadHold assesses an institution’s relevance for retail investors by simulating a proportional purchase of its top five reported holdings.

1. AMZN 35.17% 

2. VIST 22.63% 

3. VST 17.62% 

4. AEP 12.58% 

5. DTE 12.01% 


## Latest Top 10 Holdings
For the top 10 holdings, LeadHold uses publicly available data and actual trading volumes, together with an algorithm based on a diluted cost-basis methodology, to estimate the cost basis of selected positions. This estimate is provided for reference only and does not represent the investment institution’s actual cost basis.

|   No   |   Stock Name   |   Ticker   |  Activity   |    Estimated Cost  | Weight | Market Value | Shares |
| -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |  -------- | 
|   1   |   Amazon   |   AMZN   |  New   |      |   +28.18% |    117.98M  |    495K  |
|   2   |   VISTA ENERGY S.A.B. DE C.V.   |   VIST   |  New   |      |   +18.13% |    75.91M  |    1.19M  |
|   3   |   Vistra   |   VST   |  New   |      |   +14.12% |    59.13M  |    372.76K  |
|   4   |   AMERICAN ELEC PWR CO INC   |   AEP   |  New   |      |   +10.08% |    42.22M  |    308.62K  |
|   5   |   DTE ENERGY CO   |   DTE   |  New   |      |   +9.62% |    40.29M  |    264.45K  |
|   6   |   FIRSTENERGY CORP   |   FE   |  New   |      |   +9.53% |    39.9M  |    839.32K  |
|   7   |   CMS ENERGY CORP   |   CMS   |  New   |      |   +9.45% |    39.56M  |    517.12K  |
|   8   |   X-ENERGY INC   |   XE   |  New   |      |   +0.88% |    3.67M  |    200K  |